The trouble with the V-shape assumption of the recovery or any shape for that matter is that it requires life to return to some semblance of normalcy. In no small degree, we can assume that’s not going to happen anytime soon, even as governments around the world are giving the nod to reopenings.
It seems unlikely that people will be keen to return to normal. People won’t be too eager to visit crowded places. Look at M&M in China whose said sales were down a fifth from last year, despite restrictions having been lifted. I can’t see how this plays better across Europe or the US especially around major cosmopolitan centers that were hit hardest by the outbreak.
I’m not even sure what the new normal is, let alone what it’s going to look like after reopening. Countries with mass testing and tracking capabilities will emerge the fastest. But even then, it may be outdoor work that’s allowed, while bars and our favorite nightclubs are last to reopen. Office workers may rotate in terms…
