Things have quieted a bit (but only a bit) in terms of the coronavirus crisis. As such, I thought it would be a good time to provide an update on this evolving situation. Let’s start with the trends in the spread of the virus to understand what they mean in the present for the markets, as well as in the future for the pandemic itself and the economy.
Although we continue to see case counts rising, that rise is unavoidable at this stage of the pandemic and will continue for some time. Expect it — and don’t assume it means that things are getting worse. Right now, the metric that signals whether things are getting better or worse is how quickly, in percentage terms, the cases are growing. Here, the news is better.
In the chart below, you can see that growth rates around the world are now at or below 10%. This number is not great. In fact, it implies that total cases will double in just over a week. But to put things in perspective, it is substantially better than…