While COVID-19 continues its expansion into the U.S. and Europe, there are clear signs that its acceleration is slowing and that we could be seeing a marked slowdown between mid- and late April, like China did in mid-February.
Residents of China are going back to work and into the streets now.
With mind-blowing but totally predictable stimulus programs, you would think the markets would be high on crack again, but most signs point to one more surge downward – albeit not as violent or sharp as the last.
The Big Picture: We are in the late stages of that first average 42% crash in 2.6 months that marks the end of great bubbles that seem to have no end while they are going. There will be a substantial rebound – and maybe this time, more so – that by history should last three to five months and reclaim 50% to 60% of the losses.
Then, after the last denial – the last hope, the last “high” – comes the detox, the real deleveraging of debt and bubbles.